Well it seems Colin Barnett has won the ‘Boom State’ election which pitted his grandiose vision of shiny objects against Mark McGowan’s (well really Ken Travers’) Tube Map. Largely missing from the campaign menu, were the usual Cost of Living issues and the focus on service delivery like Health, Law and Order, Power, Housing and Education.

Labor Leader Mark McGowan, leapt out of the blocks early with his pre-emptive ‘Metronet’ campaign launch in January, stealing the spotlight and seemingly irritating Premier Barnett who became ‘Grumpy Colin’ for about a week. This clear air allowed Labor to establish Metronet as the iconic policy for the first part of the campaign. This left Barnett’s team scrambling in a desperate ‘me too’ catch-up phase with its own hurried Airport Rail Line pledge. The downside for McGowan in pitching early with Metronet, was that his campaign peaked early and got distracted by costing arguments.

Without a major second phase focus for Labor to pivot to, their campaign only simmered towards the end.

McGowan’s attempt to turn what should have been a secondary issue into a major winner, the ‘A Vote for Barnett is a Vote for Buswell’ suggestion, came in too late to have any impact. The seeds for that proposition should have been germinating in elector’s minds, long before the start of the campaign. Instead, it came off as a bit desperate in the eyes of many. The question raised, though, is a valid one and if better handled, this issue could have worked for Labor. Instead it was overshadowed by the seemingly hysterical optics of the protagonists.

If Colin Barnett were to complete this term as leader, he would be at least 67 before he could contemplate a succession transition. While that’s not exactly doddering by today’s standard, it would nevertheless make him the 3rd oldest of the state’s past 29 premiers. As well, previous leaders were a sprightly 54 years old, on average, when they left office. With a front-bench pretty slim on talent, other than the ever-present Troy ‘Chair Sniffer’ Buswell, is it any wonder that the harbinger of a Buswell succession looms in 2014. At least the cartoonists will be ecstatic.

Of course, the ALP were at a huge disadvantage coming into the campaign because the electorate had been primed with the Barnett Government’s $2million ‘Bigger Picture’ advertising blitz. This tax-payer funded promotion, featured the shiny vote-sweetening projects, his spending frenzy was bringing to Perth, as well as the much needed hospital projects begun under the previous Carpenter Labor Government. During his election coverage on the ABC, even host Kerry O’Brien seemed incredulous that our State Government was spending $1bn on the Burswood Stadium.

The large state-wide swing against Labor resulted in the loss of at least 6 seats, with 2 more still in doubt. The most surprising result might be the huge 7.9% swing (after distribution of preferences) against former minister, Michelle Roberts who is in a struggle to retain Midland. Of the many Labor members who lost their seat, perhaps the most poignant was John Hyde, the popular member for Perth. Hyde, first elected in 2001, seems to have drowned in the sea of money splashed by the government on expensive inner city projects like Elizabeth Quay and the Burswood Stadium.

With the swing fluctuating wildly, some southern ALP members bucked the trend with small gains. Opposition Leader, Mark McGowan and Deputy Leader, Roger Cook performed strongly with small swings to them. And Labor veteran Peter Watson (Albany) has again proved his fighting value, defending a miserly 83 vote margin from the 2008 election. He might yet pull off the most unlikely win in this otherwise horror election for Labor.

For the geeks:
Check out this bit of ‘Town of Vincent News’ nostalgia, featuring: John Hyde; Deputy Premier, Kim Hames; and former Labor minister, Bob Kucera, who unsuccessfully attempted to resurrect his career in the seat of Mt Lawley.
• Town of Vincent News, March 2001 [pdf]

---

Will Barnett keep his promises this time or will they get dumped like the “Rail line to Ellenbrook” promise from the last election?

:: Please leave a comment ::

---