In its 4th week, the record breaking US government shutdown is affecting millions of people who rely on the government for their survival, seems far from a resolution, and for what?

This shutdown was instigated by Trump when the Democrats refused to cave to his ludicrous demand for $5.7B to build his Mexican wall, which he promised Mexico would pay for. Apart from the fact that this money would only build a fraction of his wall, most observers question whether it would be effective at all, given that most contraband comes through border road entry points anyway, or via drones, planes, cannons and tunnels. Worse, Trump has fired up over this dispute that surely comes nowhere close to justifying the catastrophic harm he is causing.

I wondered why someone as cunning as Trump would resort to this issue as his first protracted confrontation, his potential Alamo? What’s in it for him? The first obvious answer is that it fires up his core ‘Build the Wall’ base of support. It also provides a huge distraction from the many flashpoints bursting around him. But, surely there’s got to be more to it than that?
With the Mueller investigation of Russia and Trump wrapping up soon, and with several bombshell revelations soon to follow, Trump must be able to read the tea leaves: he’s in for a very torrid time.

Now back to the shutdown… Trump has been openly flirting with the idea of declaring a ‘National Emergency’ which he says he could use to divert money from the military and FEMA to fund his wall. Whether he actually does declare an emergency on this occasion, I think is moot. I don’t think he will. But by keeping the idea of a declared emergency bubbling in the public consciousness for weeks, Trump is softening Americans to the very notion that such an emergency could be readily called.

Why would Trump be so keen to have the possibility of a ‘National Emergency’ handy in his back pocket? Because such an NE declaration gives him access to unprecedented and potentially almost dictatorial powers, at least in the short term. And as I’m sure he knows, the congressional review of such powers has rarely been exercised and would be very difficult to curtail. With his army of partisan judicial appointments, it’s also likely that at least some courts could be found to support him.

Trump’s rabid base has already been indoctrinated to the view that CNN, the Washington Post and the New York Times are the “enemy of the people”, so they are prepared for a barrage of negative press against their hero from that quarter of the media. As well, the Republicans in Congress have already proved to be completely spineless and without a shred of principle or decency, as they have fallen in behind Trump. So, we cannot expect much in the way of resistance from them. And while the Democrats do now control the House of Representatives, critically, after the mid-term elections where they lost Senate seats, they now have next to no influence in that more powerful chamber. It’s the Senate that will ultimately determine Trumps fate and that body is now Trumps happy spitoon.

So, back to Trump’s ‘Emergency’. Trump has always seemed to operate behind a wall of obfuscation, misdirection, fantasy, invention and created chaos. It wouldn’t take much for Trump to concoct a cyber war or even a hot war with Iran to justify ‘controls over the internet’, including search (just Google ‘idiot’ and select the images tab: the first 12 images are of Trump). Already, Trump has reportedly ordered the Pentagon to draw up plans for military strikes on Iran. It also wouldn’t take much for Trump to bury adverse reports like Mueller’s, or even an impeachment, under the cover of a ‘National Emergency’. And, if you think war with Iran is far fetched, remember the concocted intelligence that led to the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

When the real push from the Democrats and the media comes, don’t expect Trump to put his nation first and consider the consequences of his actions, do expect him to chuck everything, including the kitchen sink to defend himself.

We’re all in for one hell of a ride.

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• The Atlantic have produced this interesting piece which takes these themes a bit further. It’a a long read, perhaps best savoured in bites, but it’s quite illuminating.
What the President Could Do If He Declares a State of Emergency [The Atlantic]