The weekend election in WA has brought the fate of federal Labor into sharp focus. Although the swing in the primary vote against Mark McGowan’s State ALP team was a little over 2%, with the collapse in the Greens vote, the 2-party preferred swing of almost 7%, produced a bitter result for Labor.

Various pollsters have put the Gillard ‘drag’ effect, on the ALP in the West, at between 1.5 and 2 percent. This accounts for almost all the primary loss for McGowan’s WA Labor team. The retirement of the iconic, Bob Brown has undoubtedly caused some of the drop in the Greens vote. But when the third party vote collapses as has recent support for the Greens, it suggests that sharp differences have brought voters back to a choice between ‘Black and White’. The Greens generally provide a reliable stream of preferences to Labor. But, with most of the slumped Greens primary vote leaking to the Coalition, this is bad news for Labor.

Defence Minister, Stephen Smith

Defence Minister, Stephen Smith conceded on the weekend that federal Labor had caused a “drag” on McGowan’s chances. The always colourful, former WA Labor planning minister Alannah MacTiernan went further, saying the party faced an “absolute massacre” in the federal election and called on Prime Minister Julia Gillard to resign. On Monday, she told ABC news that she believed the result for federal Labor could be even worse than that suffered by McGowan in WA, such was the animosity towards the Prime Minister that she heard in the electorate. “It’s pretty simple and it’s pretty brutal,” Ms MacTiernan said. “They’re saying they don’t like Julia Gillard, they don’t believe her”, she added. “The overwhelming reportage from the doorstop, from the shopping centres, was that people were saying, in Labor heartland, they were saying ‘ok we’ll vote for you guys but no way are we voting for federal Labor and Julia Gillard‘. And if we do not take note of this there is going to be an absolute massacre in the federal election.”

While Ms. MacTiernan can often be relied on to shoot from the hip, she voices an opinion that is haboured by many alarmed Labor members and supporters.

The Prime Minister’s caravan tour to Rooty Hill and western Sydney last week, looked like a stunt, walked like a stunt and was a stunt. About all that came from it were traffic stop opportunities which showcased Ms Gillard’s makeover, with her stylish new eye-wear and suits, and a clumsy attempt at worker solidarity with her attack on 457 visas. Whether her points about the exploitation of 457 visas have any validity, is another issue. The fact is, her handling of the issue was terrible. You know the Prime Minister is in dangerous territory when the Xenophobic Pauline Hanson supports her. And the optics of Gillard’s own British media adviser, John McTernan, working here with a 457 visa, standing in back while she stumped for the employment of ‘Australian workers before foreigners’, smacked of hypocricy.

Respected as Ms. Gillard might be within Caucus, there’s no escaping the reality that she’s not believed as authentic in the electorate. Neither is she perceived as a strong leader with a personality that engages. Her lack in these areas, is not compensated by gravitas, authority or perceived strength. In short, the recent sartorial style change is not enough to begin to change the public narrative that has been set in concrete for the last two years.

Health Minister, Tanya Plibersek

It might only be my opinion, but I think last year’s boost for Gillard as preferred prime minister, was more an ‘antidote to Tony Abbott‘ response, than any warming to Julia Gillard. In contrast, Health Minister, Tanya Plibersek, always a star on Q&A (ABC), looks and sounds like the genuine article with a warm personality, a sense of humour and a relaxed, authoritative, competent and compassionate style.

I would not normally counsel a panicked reaction to an election loss or the recent diabolical poll numbers, but in this case, the window of opportunity to change the leader and staunch the bloodbath that will ensue in September, is closing. The next two sitting weeks are the last, the members of the federal Labor caucus will be together, before leaving Canberra until the Budget in May. By that time, the noise of the Budget and its aftermath, will make it difficult for a new prime minister to find any air. As well, the short lead in to September makes it strategically unthinkable to wait that long.

I think the current poll-driven, reactive politics that eschews thoughtful policy and rejects an ideologically infused theory of government, is eroding public support for democracy as well as party membership. I also think the poll-driven dumping of Kevin Rudd in 2010 and Ted Baillieu last week were a symptom of a political system suffering from ‘Anxiety and High Blood Pressure’. And while my call for Julia Gillard to resign might seem to fall into this trend, it is however, rooted in a very long-held belief that she cannot lead the federal ALP to victory. The figures don’t yet show it, but I’m fearful that the looming, but wholly avoidable, disaster for Labor will rival the sad tsunami that hit my hero Gough Whitlam in 1975.

The change must be made by Julia. She can either lead Labor to a humiliating and catastrophic defeat or she can do the right and gracious thing and resign and give her party a chance to recover before September. Caucus members in vulnerable seats, which now even include Defence Minister Stephen Smith (Perth), need to urge the PM to act before it’s too late. This next two weeks is the last real opportunity that exists to make the change and give Labor Caucus members any hope.

If Kevin Rudd hadn’t challenged last year, the obvious choice for transition would be clear as he’s still the most popular politician in Australia. However, It is the most high-risk, high-return option. His 2012 leadership tilt, was an extremely bloody event that provided the Opposition campaign boffins with a Chocolate Box Selection of damaging quotes and footage with which to attack him if he were prime minister.

That leaves the affable Bill Shorten or the telegenic and honest but introverted, Stephen Smith. Defence Minister, Smith might lack a little in charisma but he is eminently authentic and has a reflective, thoughtful style which might be welcomed by an electorate tired of the hyped drama surrounding the humourless, Gillard and the one-dimensional ‘Red Speedo Brawler’, Tony Abbott.

Workplace Relations Minister, Bill Shorten

Employment and Workplace Relations Minister, Bill Shorten, another star of Q&A, has an easy ‘Let’s sit down and have a chat’ style that draws you in. His disarmingly quick wit and self-deprecation don’t do him any harm either. He also projects an honest, straight taking manner that contrasts with the Prime Minister. These are all traits the brittle Julia Gillard could use in spades.

Last week’s bloodless coup that saw Ted Baillieu resign as Victorian Premier, adds yet another leadership change story, that should make a federal Labor transition seem a lot more routine than it would have, even just a week ago. As well, it further robs Abbott of the argument that leadership coups are a Labor phenomenon.

Trying to tough it out is not an option; the negative narrative that is attached to Julia Gillard is too strong, sustained and concrete for that. And, make no mistake, Tony Abbott is loathed by as many people as Julia, women in particular. I know many conservative women who openly talk of spoiling their ballot rather than vote for that ‘awful man’. That Labor is as high as 32% on the primary vote, is as much a reflection of the passion of the dislike for Tony Abbott. A ‘Someone-who-isn’t-Tony’ could lead the Opposition and drive the Gillard government even lower in the polls.

Only a circuit breaker that forces the media, the public and the Opposition to find a new field of battle, will give federal Labor any hope of fighting back and maybe even saving itself and Australia from Tony Abbott.

The federal Labor Caucus needs to act now!

Will Julia see the writing on the wall and resign now or will she desperately hang on, and the day after the election, lamely try to explain why the Labor Party lost 30 seats?

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